Wires and cables are widely used in various sectors of the national economy and are the basic guarantee for the normal operation of the modern economy and society. The development level of the wire and cable industry is also a sign and epitome of a country's manufacturing level.
Developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan industrialized earlier. At the end of the 20th century, a mature cable industry chain was formed and contributed most of the world's production capacity and demand. It still occupies an important position in global supply and marketing, leading the development of the industry, and basically monopolizing the global high-end market.
At the same time, thanks to the rapid development of the Chinese market, the wire and cable industry in Asia has an increasing share of the world. At present, the global wire and cable industry has entered a stage of stable growth, and to a certain extent, it presents the characteristics of stock competition.
The core data of this article: the regional market share of the global wire and cable industry, the market concentration of the wire and cable industry in major regions, the global demand for wire and cable, the global market size of the metal insulated wire and cable industry, and the forecast of the global wire and cable industry market size.
1. The growth of global demand slows down and the decline accelerates under the epidemic
At present, the commonly used wires and cables in the world are divided into insulated wires and cables and bare wires according to the type of insulation. Due to the small market size of bare wires, wires and cables are narrowly insulated wires and cables. The international common practice is to use insulated wires and cables as the main market. To analyze and study the wire and cable industry, the following is an analysis of the development status of the global wire and cable based on insulated wire and cable.
According to data released by CRU, in 2019, affected by the weak demand in the Chinese market, the growth rate of global metal insulated wire and cable demand (conductor weight) has slowed down significantly. The demand in 2019 was 19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of nearly 1%. CRU released a report in December 2020 saying that due to the impact of the epidemic in 2020, global cable demand excluding China will shrink at a nearly double-digit rate.
While market demand is recovering across countries, early weakness will drive double-digit declines in 2020 in multiple regions. Therefore, the global demand for insulated metal wire and cable will shrink by about 5%-6% year-on-year this year. Foresight According to preliminary estimates, the global demand for metal insulated wire and cable in 2020 will drop to 17.86 million tons.
2. The epidemic has led to a decline in demand, and the global market size has gradually shrunk
As one of the most important manufacturing industries in the world, wire and cable has a market size of more than 100 billion US dollars. From 2017 to 2020, the market size of the global wire and cable industry generally shows a trend of fluctuation. According to data released by CRU, the market size of the global metal insulated wire and cable industry in 2017 was US$161 billion. There was a slight increase in 2018 to $172 billion. In 2019, the global market size declined slightly to US$164 billion due to the decline in Chinese market demand. Foresight According to preliminary estimates, the global metal insulated wire and cable market will be affected by the epidemic in 2020, and the demand will shrink, with a market size of 152 billion US dollars.
3. The market share in the Asia-Pacific region gradually expands, and the rest of the region begins to shrink
In recent years, the rapid economic growth of emerging countries such as Asia and the shift of the world's wire and cable production center to Asia have driven the rapid development of wire and cable industries in China, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Egypt in the Middle East.
According to the report released by CRU, the epidemic in 2020 will have different degrees of impact in other regions of the world except China. The forward-looking combined with multi-party market data, summarizes the overall development of the power cable industry on a global scale, which is manifested in the rapid rise in Asia, a slight decline in the Americas, and a relatively unstable development in Europe in recent years, which is greatly affected by economic and political factors. The Asia-Pacific region accounts for about 49% of the global consumption scale, while Europe and the Americas account for 15% and 10% respectively.
4. The European, American and Japanese markets are relatively mature and the market concentration is relatively high
After years of development in the wire and cable industry in developed countries, especially in the face of fluctuations in raw material prices, small enterprises have gradually withdrawn from the market, and the industrial concentration has increased significantly. ) accounted for about 70% of the market share; the seven major cable companies in Japan (such as Furukawa, Sumitomo, Tengcang, Hitachi, Showa, etc.) accounted for more than 65% of the market share; the five major cable companies in France (Nexans, Xinte, etc.) It swept the turnover of the French market and occupied more than 90% of the French market share. The concentration of the entire wire and cable industry in China is extremely low, with a CR10 of 17.7%.
5. The growth rate of emerging markets has significantly increased the demand in the post-epidemic era
In 2020, affected by the new crown epidemic, the global wire and cable market is in turmoil. With the recovery of the global economy and China's investment in new energy and infrastructure construction, it is expected that the global wire and cable market will recover in 2021. Foresight predicts that the global metal insulated wire and cable market will rebound to US$180 billion in 2021.
However, in the medium term, after the end of the new crown epidemic, the global wire and cable industry will return to healthy growth driven by government and private investment, but the growth rate will be slightly slower than the previous five years. Among them, emerging markets represented by Africa and Southeast Asia are developing rapidly, and their construction, infrastructure, public utilities and industrial development activities will accelerate, and these activities will provide huge upward potential for wire and cable demand in emerging markets. Growth in demand will continue to support recovery and growth in global demand.
According to CRU's forecast, after 2023, the market demand of the global wire and cable industry will return to the level of 2019. It is expected that the global wire and cable market will expand at an average annual growth rate of 5% from 2021 to 2026, and the market size of the global metal insulated wire and cable industry is expected to reach US$230 billion in 2026.